Tonight, Obama and Romney face each other in debate. I’ve read some speculation that this is Romney’s chance to reverse the current media narrative that his defeat is inevitable.
Obama can be a clumsy and inarticulate debater, so Romney might be in with a chance tonight. But, even if Obama completely humiliates him, I think it’s very possible that Romney might win the election.
First, let’s remember that the debates mean little or nothing. Americans support political parties the same way they support sports teams (which is why Democrats defend Obama’s war crimes with the same arguments Republicans used to defend Bush’s). In debate with John Kerry, Bush was so pitifully inept that I wanted to give him a hug, lead him offstage and tell Kerry to go pick on someone his own size, but he was re-elected.
Second, I wonder who Obama thinks will vote for him this time. I hear so many people who voted for him four years ago say they’re not going to vote at all this year. When he got the nomination, I heard many arguments that the U.S. electorate would not vote for a black man. I disagreed, because I thought - rightly - that a black man with a progressive platform would inspire people to vote who normally saw no one worth voting for. He has alienated so many of his previous supporters by showing himself to be Bush on steroids that Romney may win in spite of his oafishness.